MANILA, Philippines – Up until February, it seemed like Canada was well on its way to MAGAfication — or the political shift toward US President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement.

The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), which shares ideological parallels with Trump’s MAGA, had been maintaining its lead in polls over the incumbent Liberal Party (LPC) following the 2021 federal election. However, there’s one factor that the CPC didn’t see coming: Trump himself.

Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on imports, as well as his threats to annex Canada, have inflamed Canadian nationalism and derailed the CPC’s momentum. An IPSOS survey released in February showed that the incumbent Liberals had gained a two-point lead over the CPC — their first good number since 2021. This further grew into a six-point lead in a subsequent poll released in March, with the LPC at 42% and the CPC at 36%.

Canada is heading to the polls on April 28 after newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney called for a snap election amid rising tensions with Trump.

Despite the recent resurgence of LPC in the polls, one thing is certain: populist sentiment did not emerge overnight.

Over the past decade, the Conservatives have built their campaign using talking points that oppose liberal policies, such as former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon pricing and COVID-19 response. This worked well for the CPC, now led by Pierre Poilievre. It worked so well that Trudeau announced his resignation as prime minister and LPC leader on January 6, attributing his decision to party infighting. Two months later, on March 9, the LPC announced Carney as his successor.

Poilievre, who has been called the “darling of the global right,” has played a pivotal role in boosting the CPC’s lead over the LPC by capitalizing on Canadians’ growing discontent due to economic woes under Trudeau. He has even received public praise from billionaire Elon Musk, who is also the head of the Department of Government Efficiency under Trump.

Despite the recent resurgence of LPC in the polls, one thing is certain: populist sentiment did not emerge overnight.

Over the past decade, the Conservatives have built their campaign using talking points that oppose liberal policies, such as former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon pricing and COVID-19 response. This worked well for the CPC, now led by Pierre Poilievre. It worked so well that Trudeau announced his resignation as prime minister and LPC leader on January 6, attributing his decision to party infighting. Two months later, on March 9, the LPC announced Carney as his successor.

The Nerve analyzed the online discussions on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) to see how populist narratives — including discussions about Trudeau’s economic policies and the public’s distrust in the media — have seeped into the mainstream discourse and catapulted Poilivre’s popularity for over a decade, from January 2015 to January 2025.

This was how populist sentiment grew online in Canada.

Prime target: Justin Trudeau

Trudeau served as the LPC’s leader since 2013 until March this year, and Canada’s prime minister since 2015. Canada’s political landscape shifted dramatically under his term — from a wave of progressive optimism in his early years to growing polarization in the latter half of his term, mirroring political trends in the US.

Terms like “axe the tax,” a campaign against Trudeau’s carbon pricing scheme, and “Justinflation,” a play on Trudeau’s name and inflation, have become rallying cries tied to economic grievances during Trudeau’s term. These narratives came from Conservative politicians but gained traction over time, particularly as more prominent public figures amplified them.

“Axe the tax” was mentioned as early as 2016, but posts mentioning the phrase spiked significantly in 2022 when Conservative politicians started amplifying it. The phrase has gained popularity since then, with Conservative members of parliament and their supporters taking it as an opportunity to promote a Poilievre government.

Similarly, “Justinflation” was mentioned as early as December 2021 but gained significant traction in 2022.

Economic frustrations and broader global political trends appear to have contributed to these spikes in 2022. Canada's highest inflation rate reached 8.1% in June 2022, marking a 40-year high.

The height of the Freedom Convoy protests, a movement against a Canadian vaccine requirement for cross-border truckers, also took place from January to February 2022. It later evolved into a broader anti-government, anti-Trudeau, and populist movement.

It was also in October 2022 when Poilievre assumed leadership of the CPC. Data showed that Poilievre is the top actor mentioning “axe the tax” (at least 470 mentions) and “Justinflation” (at least 166 mentions) on Facebook, effectively leading the battle cry against Trudeau’s policies. The CPC continues to push these narratives ahead of the 2025 federal election with a new slogan directed at the LPC bet: “Carbon Tax Carney.”

Network clustering of the posts showed that Poilievre, along with other Conservative politicians, is among the most central figures in the discourse about Trudeau’s economic policies.

Facebook entities that shared posts about “axe the tax,” “carbon tax,” and “Justinflation” were found to form five major distinct clusters, with the majority of them sharing right-leaning ideologies.

Network clustering of the top sources of these entities also showed that right-leaning media play a key role in sustaining and amplifying these narratives, much like the information ecosystem in the US.

Erosion of trust

Another prominent characteristic of the MAGA ideology is the erosion of trust in the media, paired with accusations of bias and attacks on independent journalism. In Canada, the prime target is the national public broadcaster, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC).

Data showed that calls to defund the CBC have existed as early as June 2015. These posts came from groups supporting the CPC, which accused the CBC of spending public funds for its own gain and criticized its coverage of immigration issues — another core rhetoric espoused by the MAGA movement.

Posts calling to defund the CBC surged in February 2022, spurred by criticism over the network’s coverage of the Freedom Convoy protests. Many supporters of the convoy accused the CBC of biased reporting, particularly for framing the protests as being driven by far-right extremists.

These attacks were also co-opted in the following months by Conservative politicians, prominently Poilievre, who accused the CBC of publishing “fake news” and called them “gatekeeping elites.”

The growing hostility toward the media set the stage for more restrictions that would eventually stifle journalism in Canada. In 2023, Meta removed news content from the feeds of people accessing Facebook and Instagram in Canada in response to the Online News Act, which requires Big Tech platforms to pay news publishers. It was enacted after media groups raised alarm about how internet companies divert advertising revenues away from news creators — a concern that threatens the sustainability of journalism globally.

Transcending geographical borders

Populist narratives were also present on X. Posts mentioning "Make Canada Great Again" notably spiked in February 2024, primarily triggered by a parliamentary exchange between Trudeau and Poilievre. During a heated debate on crime rates, Trudeau accused Poilievre of wanting to "Make Canada Great Again" and said this is "not what Canadians want." Many X users attacked Trudeau, calling him a “pathological liar” and an “idiot,” among other things.

Influential global figures who espouse the same ideologies amplified these sentiments on X, including British-American Andrew Tate.

Tate quote-retweeted a post from an X-verified anonymous account spreading conspiracy theories, where he attacked Trudeau and called him a “fag.” Tate’s quote tweet garnered way more engagement than the original tweet, with over 32,000 likes compared to the original tweet’s 2,600.

Poilievre vs Carney

For his part, Poilievre distanced himself from Trump. This came after Trump said in an interview that Poilievre’s “biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy.”

However, much like how Poilievre capitalized on criticizing Trudeau and the LPC to rally his base, Carney is taking a similar approach by highlighting how Poilievre “worships” Trump. 

“Who’s the worst person to stand up to Donald Trump? It’s Pierre Poilievre…. He uses his language. He’s not the right person for our country at this crucial time,” The Guardian quoted Carney as saying. LPC had also reportedly run advertisements comparing Poilievre to Trump.

Will Canadians’ disdain for Trump’s actions outweigh what remains of Poilievre's populist appeal? – with reports from Gaby Baizas and Dylan Salcedo/Rappler.com

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This story was originally published on Rappler on March 21, 2025.

Decoded is a Rappler series that explores the challenges and opportunities that come with living in transformative times. It is produced by The Nerve, a data forensics company that enables changemakers to navigate real-world trends and issues through narrative & network investigations. Taking the best of human and machine, we enable partners to unlock powerful insights that shape informed decisions. Composed of a team of data scientists, strategists, award-winning storytellers, and designers, the company is on a mission to deliver data with real-world impact.