(Editor’s note: This is the last of four stories on results from The Nerve’s survey exploring voter trends in the lead-up to the 2025 national and local elections. Scroll down the bottom of this page to find the links to three other stories on voters’ considerations, ideal candidates, and top issues and concerns.)

MANILA, Philippines – When people talk about election surveys among senatorial candidates, the focus tends to be on their rankings.

What often gets missed is the importance of understanding the social demographics of the respondents. Exploring their beliefs, values, and emotional triggers can show not just how people will vote but why they make those decisions. This allows for a deeper insight into the factors that shape election outcomes.

It is through this lens that data forensics firm The Nerve studied the data gathered from a survey related to the 2025 senatorial elections. Conducted on the Rappler website from September 19 to 30, 2024 — before the filing of the certificates of candidacy — Rappler readers eligible to vote were asked about the most important issues for the Philippines, crucial characteristics of legislators, and the factors that influence their voting decisions, among others. 

Nerve grouped the survey respondents based on two factors: the similarity of their responses to each other, and how different their responses  are from other groups. Doing this allowed the team to identify distinct voter segments — psychographic cohorts — that also tracked those with most similar beliefs and political views. 

The total 2,700 respondents in the Nerve survey were classified under four psychological cohorts: Practical working class, economy-conscious professionals, young progressives, and law-and-order rural supporters. 

Each cohort’s priorities and issues that matter

Jose Ramon Albert, statistician and senior researcher fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said that this approach can show “more subtle patterns in voter behavior,” including how value systems and lifestyle choices interact with demographic factors to influence political decisions.

“Understanding these intersections is crucial for developing a more complete picture of the electorate,” he told Rappler. “As we approach the 2025 elections, understanding how different segments of society form their political opinions and make electoral choices becomes increasingly important.” 

For example, the Nerve survey results showed that preference for a senatorial candidate who has a proven track record cuts across the four psychographic cohorts. Having strong accomplishments is the most important factor for more than half of the respondents in each cohort when deciding who to vote for in the elections. 

Note, though, that there are more law-and-order rural supporters who consider an aspiring legislator from a prominent or political family or the same hometown, compared to the rest of the other cohorts. 

This specific cohort — law-and-order rural supporters — are the ones most aligned with former president Rodrigo Duterte. Members of this cohort, according to the survey results, are the most dissatisfied with the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. This is in line with the current hostility between the two former allies following Marcos’ fallout with former presidential daughter Vice President Sara Duterte.

They also express the strongest opposition to the International Criminal Court investigation into the killings under Duterte’s violent war on drugs. At least 6,252 people were killed in police anti-drug operations alone until May 2022. Human rights groups estimate the death toll to reach 30,000 to include victims of vigilante-style killings.

While the Marcos administration remains inconsistent and evasive regarding this investigation, the House of Representatives’ hearings into the killings may be considered the strongest indication of a pivot. Marcos, however, is yet to act on the findings of these congressional hearings. 

Diving into the psychographic cohorts 

Practical working class

Members of the practical working class comprise 28.7% of the total 2,700 survey respondents. At least 15.48% of respondents in this cohort — considered as lower to middle-income voters — earn below P10,000. Because of this, their attention remains on immediate and practical economic needs due to their vulnerability to financial fluctuations. They also focus on securing financial stability and job security while concerned on inflation too. 

Members of the practical working class are progressive on social reforms — including on issues regarding divorce and same-sex marriage — but are “driven by immediate economic concerns.” More than 70% of the respondents under this cohort support same-sex marriage while 90.32% are for divorce. Meanwhile, 56.13% support abortion. 

When it comes to media consumption, one can find those from the practical working class balancing traditional media and online engagement. At least 70.97% resort to social media while 51.35% watch television. 

This group is the least likely to vote possibly due to practical concerns. They’re also only moderately decided on their choice of candidate since at least 44.90%  are still open to changing their minds based on more information.

Economy-conscious professionals

Economy-conscious professionals — 25.7% of the total survey respondents — are mostly middle-income and well-educated voters. But while inflation and job security are still part of their priorities, their higher income and education levels shift their focus toward broader economic stability and policy. 

Members of this cohort take moderate positions on key issues. At least 75.25% support divorce while 53.58% are for same-sex marriage. There is some hesitation on abortion with 42.77% expressing support for it. 

Their media preferences lean slightly toward traditional outlets like television, but they maintain a strong online presence. At least 70.94% engage online while 56.98% use the television for media consumption.

Young progressives

The cohort of young progressives is made up of younger, urban professionals that are highly-educated. They have a strong focus on governance reform and social issues, and their top concern is fighting corruption with 81.87%. 

Members of this cohort can be considered as socially progressive due to their overwhelming support for controversial issues. At least 92.75% support divorce, 84.52% for same-sex marriage, and 70.91% are for abortion. 

They are also mostly online, with at least 82.98% engaged with online news. 

Law-and-order rural supporters

Law-and-order rural supporters are voters hail from rural or suburban areas who prioritize security, stability, and governance. At least 72% are deeply concerned with corruption while 37.82% are concerned about crime. According to the survey results, this cohort is the only one “with strong support to former president Rodrigo Duterte,” as they align with his law-and-order policies. 

Members of this cohort  earn between P20,001 and P40,000. They show strong support for abortion, at 70.57%, but are more conservative on other social issues. Only 47.89% support same-sex marriage and 38.52% for abortion. 

Their media consumption is more traditional, with a notable reliance on television at 40.55% and radio at 15.37%. 

READ STORIES FROM THE NERVE SURVEY

• [DECODED] Corruption, inflation, education are top of mind for voters
• [DECODED] Voters tag integrity, honesty as ‘most important’ characteristics of PH senator
• [DECODED] Candidates’ performance and competence important for voters

– Rappler.com

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This story was originally published on Rappler on January 27, 2025. It was made in collaboration with The Nerve, a data forensics company that enables changemakers to navigate real-world trends and issues through narrative and network investigations. Taking the best of human and machine, we enable partners to unlock powerful insights that shape informed decisions. Composed of a team of data scientists, strategists, award-winning storytellers, and designers, the company is on a mission to deliver data with real-world impact.